Boeing pegs next 20 years demand at 1,600 new planes worth $205 billion

Show: India Aviation 2014 - Day 3

Boeing projects demand for over 1,600 new airplanes in India over the next 20 years, valued at $205 billion. The company briefed its 20-year market outlook for the country today at India Aviation 2014, forecasting India’s commercial aviation fleet will grow more than five times in size.

“India’s demographics are highly favorable to the growth of air transportation,” said Dinesh Keskar, Senior Vice President of Sales, Asia-Pacific and India, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “The share of India’s large population entering the workforce is growing. India could have the world’s fourth-largest economy if current trends continue helping drive demand for air travel.”

Boeing projects that passenger airlines in India will rely primarily on single-aisle airplanes such as the Next-Generation 737 and the 737 MAX, a new-engine variant of the market-leading 737, to connect passengers. Singleaisle airplanes will represent 83 per cent of the new airplanes in the country.

For long-haul traffic, Boeing forecasts twin-aisle airplanes such as the 747-8 Intercontinental, 777 and the 787 Dreamliner will account for 15 percent of new airplane deliveries. Boeing’s recently launched 787-10 and 777X also will support the demand for fuel-efficient twin-aisle airplanes in India.

The 20-year forecast of airplane deliveries by airplane types is as follows:

India New Airplane Deliveries: 2013-2032

Airplane Type Deliveries Value ($)
Single-aisle 1,330 $132 billion
Twin-aisle 235 $72 billion
Regional jets 35 $1 billion

“India will continue to have one of the strongest, most vibrant aviation markets in the world over the next two decades,” said Keskar. “While passenger growth is recovering and we project a healthy aviation industry in the long term, adverse near-term trends of overcapacity, a weak rupee and high fuel prices will affect airline profitability in the near term.”

Globally, Boeing projects a $4.8 trillion market for 35,280 airplanes over the next 20 years, driven by an increase in deliveries from India, China and other emerging markets. That forecast represents the traffic growing at five per cent annual rate over the next 20 years and the world fleet is expected to double by 2032.